Model Overview
Saturation (K)
758
pubs
Peak Year (tₘ)
2022
Peak Annual
28
pubs/year
Growth Duration (Δₜ)
30
years
Model Fit Quality
Good
R²
0.814
RMSE
4.17
AIC
80.2
BIC
84.0
Current Status
Last Observed Year:
2026
Annual Publications:
21
Cumulative Total:
457
Progress to Saturation:
60.3%
60.3%
Milestone Years
10% of K:
2007.2
50% of K (Midpoint):
2022.2
90% of K:
2037.2
(+11 years)
99% of K:
2053.6
(+28 years)
The topic is in the
maturity phase
(50-90% of saturation). Growth is slowing.
Forecast
Forecast Period:
2027 - 2074
Projection for 2031:
594 cumulative
(19 annual)
Projection for 2036:
669 cumulative
(11 annual)